Let me start off this post by stating that I am not an advertising expert.  I have limited experience in advertising which I know is a vast and difficult field.  With that said, I am someone who is familiar with media and media trends.

The 30 second commercial is dead.

Well… almost.  It’s dying.  It has the cancer known as antiquity with no chance of survival because there are other, cooler people in the waiting room which show more likelihood to live and deserve more attention.  

Undoubtedly, the 30 second commercial (30sc) has its place firmly embedded within television programming, and deservedly so.  It is easy to stack several 30sc to reach the 30/60 minute program slot (for those who never thought about it, a typical 30 minute show is actually 22 minutes of content with 8 minutes left over for commercials and a 60 minute show is only 44 minutes of content with 16 minutes remaining for commercials).  In addition to that, 30 seconds is long enough to tell a story, hold the viewers attention, and explain a product.  On a medium that is designed to be watched in increments of half hours and hours, it works rather well.

But we are in the midst of a technological revolution.  Subsequently, how we consume media and our expectations for the media we consume are also in revolt.  Quickly disappearing are the days of watching TV shows when/how they are scheduled for broadcast.  Those who still use televisions often times have DVRs and Tivos to time-shift their viewing appointments.  They can fast forward through advertisements to quickly resume their desired show.  And becoming even more popular is watching content online.  This is where the 30sc has heard its death knell.

The internet has given us access to a plethora of media- to the point of over-consumption.  With broadband capabilities becoming the norm, the speed at which we garner it all can be overwhelming.  People are developing shorter attention spans, wanting the punch of the clip to come sooner and sooner.  So if this is true with the content, why don’t advertisers realize it carries over to their spots as well?

People are simply becoming more and more unlikely to wait to get what they want.  There have been several instances when searching through video clips online where a 30sc would play before I could see my video, but instead of waiting through the spot, I simply didn’t watch the clip at all.  When I want to see a short video that is only 45 seconds long, why would I spend 30 seconds watching something I didn’t care about in the first place?  Your newly scented diapers don’t pertain to me because I don’t have kids… or continence issues.

Hulu.com, an online leader for internet television, is at least aware of this issue.  They are trying some interesting other tactics with their advertising (in collaboration with the ad agencies of course too).  For example, one way to make advertising more bearable is to make it a little more interactive.  Several weeks ago while watching Hulu I was presented with a choice on the ‘advertising experience’ I would like to have.  It was for a XBox 360 game called Mass Effect 2 which is a game that has many characters.  I was able to select one of the people (a term used loosely for this sci-fi game) that intrigued me the most.  So during the typical commercial break of my program, I was then shown a Mass Effect 2 video which centered around my selected character.  Since I chose that person, I was much more invested in what happened to him than if I had been shown a video on someone who didn’t interest me at all.  

As a noteworthy point, it has been several weeks since I was presented with this situation and I can still recall the game that the commercial was for, but not the show I was watching when I saw the commercial.

Another experiment that Hulu and partners are testing is having a commercial specifically tailored to the style of the show being watched.  An example of this would be the Priceline ad currently running during the Family Guy episodes.  Instead of reusing the Bill-Shatner-acts-capricious-to-negoiate-prices commercials that you see on TV, they made a new Bill-Shatner-acts-capricious-to-negotiate-prices cartoon drawn with the same animation as Family Guy.  They specifically crafted a new commercial just for online viewers who want to see this specific show!  Granted Family Guy is probably one of Hulu’s most-watched series, thus justifying the expense of generating a new commercial, but it actually works!  My attention is much more rapt by it because it is within the style that I want to be viewing at that time period.

While Hulu is a perpetrator of the 30sc on some short clips, they do also sometimes display shorter ads before shows too.  Often times ads will only run for 6 or 7 seconds.  I find this to be much more effective, as I am willing to sit through that amount of time opposed to a full 30 seconds, where I have enough time to effectively distract myself with something else until the commercial is over.  They have to remember: we are on computers which have the internet!  If you don’t keep my attention within 10 seconds or so, I’m gone.  There are many open programs I am using simultaneously, different tabs with different sites, IMs, emails, and posts which all require my reading.  If you give me time to do something else, I will.  Don’t give me time to leave.  Keep it short.  I promise you, I’ll know whether I want to buy your product or not in 10 seconds.  I’ll get the point.

These are examples of strategies being tried currently, but in what direction will advertisers ultimately turn?  They will have to continue to experiment, and in all likelihood there won’t be a solution that is one-size-fits-all.  I doubt the next big advertising effort will enjoy the reign of succession that the 30sc has for decades.  Changes in technology will only continue to gain momentum, and it will become an ever-faster evolution.  But what I do see as a likely possibility, even in the near future, would be profile-based video advertising.  Much like what Facebook or Google does on their respective sites, keywords will be found pertaining to your interests thus delivering to you video advertising directly related to your life.

Let’s say everyone eventually has a general internet profile- for this example we can use Facebook since they are attempting to do this with Facebook Connect- and on that profile you have your interests, your hobbies, your likes/dislikes, favorite movies, books, etc.  This profile is you on the internet, everywhere you go, not just on one site.  So when you watch a video on Hulu, Hulu will automatically see your profile with all your information, pick out certain keywords, and deliver a video advertisement that is applicable to your life.  It would know not to show me a video about diapers because I don’t have anything listed regarding kids.  Instead, it might show me a new type of hiking boot that is more durable or gives better ankle support.  Or it recognizes that my favorite movie is Blade Runner and shows me a trailer for the upcoming Robin Hood (both directed by Ridley Scott) instead of a film with no value to me like Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel.  This type of video advertising, I believe, is very likely to happen.

Now, realistically, how long does the 30sc have to live?  Some people give it only 5 years.  Others 10.  It’s hard to say.  While I think technology will continue to change, business models don’t.  Not quickly.  As the internet develops, 2d TVs become 3d, and delivery platforms continue to shrink, advertisers will cling to the old business model of 30sc until finally something new can be constructed.  It will take time for the technology to cement, and even after that for the old business model to crumble.  Truthfully though, cracks can already be seen in the longstanding monument.

I am excited to see what will be erected in its place.

As humans, I believe it is in our nature to make plans.  Maybe for the short term, others for the long.  Some are ambitious while some may be just enough to get the next dollar in your pocket.  Plans are great things that can guide us on our way to achieve success.  They serve as references by which to measure our worth.  Have we achieved what we set out to accomplish with our plans?

But sometimes circumstances change and things don’t go according to plan (please excuse the cliche expression… not to mention the nebulous writing).  For that reason I am tempted to exclaim that plans don’t even matter.  Too much of life is unsure.  There are too many variables constantly in motion.  You can’t predict the future and there is no way to account for events unseen.  Regardless of how well you dictate your plans, life always throws something at you.  Sometimes it’s a bone and sometimes it’s a monkey wrench, but regardless of what it is, it rarely coincides with what you’ve already laid out for yourself.

So though, yes, I am tempted to say that plans don’t matter for all the aforementioned reasons, I just can’t do it.  I know that I don’t really believe that statement.  While I do agree that all are valid factors that interfere (and are a little trite too) that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t make plans anyway.

They give you structure; they give you a goal.  You should always be striving to attain something, and the more difficult that goal is to attain, the better you’ll become in your efforts to accomplish it.  Even if you don’t reach it, you will become better. 

Maybe your plans don’t come to fruition.  That’s okay.  The way I see it, the most successful person doesn’t have a plan and just sticks to it.  They have a plan and then change it every time something new comes up.  They adjust to the unexpected.  Plans need to be amorphous.  If you lay out a plan and never encounter a difficulty along the way, then you didn’t challenge yourself enough.  You never grew from the experience.  

In the last year I have had more intentions than accomplishments, something I hope to soon reverse.  Few of my plans have ended how I first thought- both in terrible and incredible ways.  I didn’t plan to have long bouts of unemployment, but I didn’t plan to fall in love either.  The plans I was pursuing most recently have changed even again, but while my directions have altered in a way I didn’t expect, I am excited for the unknown life that awaits me.

To what end do these newfound challenges lead?  Not even the wisest of people can predict.  But I do know that the plans that I have will become the plans that I had, and they will guide me to the plans I will follow.

(How’s that for a wordy end-sentence?)